Will Karmine Corp win the Karmine Corp vs. SK Gaming League of Legends match?

87¢

Bid/Ask 83/87¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $93.18·OI $150·Closes May 4, 2026·15d remaining

KXLOLGAME-26APR201315KCSK-KC

7-day price260 snapshots · 4 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing Karmine Corp as heavy favorites at 87¢, but the extremely thin liquidity ($150 open interest, $94 daily volume) and massive realized volatility of 722% suggest this price may not be reliable. The No side's astronomical implied yield of 11,819% indicates severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine SK Gaming upside, while the 13-point price surge over seven days (74¢ to 83¢) combined with a high info arrival rate of 5.6/hour suggests active repricing ahead of the April 20 match.

Resolution rules

If Karmine Corp wins the LEC 2026: Karmine Corp vs. SK Gaming League of Legends match originally scheduled for Apr 20, 2026 at 1:15 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.6%

IY (No) 11885.1%

Adj IY 11312%

CRI 5

RV 712%

VR 3.05

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11885.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11312%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	712%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.05	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 5:29:42 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:23:14 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLOLGAME-26APR201315KCSK-KC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →