Will Ken Paxton win Harris County?

65¢

Bid/Ask 65/66¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $31.59·Closes May 26, 2027·402d remaining

KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-SENATETXR26-HAR

7-day price8 snapshots · 6 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing Paxton at 65% to win Harris County with a stark asymmetry in yields—the "No" side offers 168.5% implied yield versus 48.9% for "Yes," suggesting significant underpricing of the bearish case relative to current probability. With only $31.59 open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is extremely thin, making the 65¢ price potentially unreliable for large position sizing. The market has drifted up 3 cents over seven days with 402 days to expiration, leaving substantial time for information arrival, though the neutral regime score and low cliff risk index suggest relatively stable conditions ahead.

Resolution rules

If Ken Paxton wins the the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff in Harris County, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 48.9%

IY (No) 168.5%

Adj IY 84%

CRI 2

Overround 1.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	48.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	168.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	84%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:06:33 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:53:35 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPRIMARYCOUNTY-SENATETXR26-HAR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →