Will Lisa Murkowski endorse Mary Peltola in 2026 Alaska Senate election before Nov 3, 2026?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely endorsement at just 4¢, implying a 96% probability that Murkowski won't back Peltola despite both being Alaska moderates—a notably bearish view given their ideological alignment and Murkowski's history of cross-party collaboration. The 7¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity, while the astronomical 4417.6% implied yield on the Yes side indicates either a significant mispricing opportunity or genuine conviction that such an endorsement is nearly impossible. With 198 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, the market has adequate time for political developments, but the combination of thin liquidity and extreme price skew warrants caution before taking either side.

Resolution rules

If Lisa Murkowski publicly endorses Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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