Will LYON win the Shopify Rebellion vs. LYON League of Legends match?

85¢

Bid/Ask 83/85¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $12.82·OI $167.77·Closes May 3, 2026·15d remaining

KXLOLGAME-26APR191600SRLY-LY

7-day price102 snapshots · 6 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of micro-cap prediction markets, with only $1 in 24h volume and $149.66 open interest supporting an 87¢ price that implies LYON is heavily favored. The No side offers a staggering 11,770% implied yield versus just 494% for Yes, reflecting the massive risk premium required to take the contrarian position on such thin liquidity—a 13¢ spread and 447% realized volatility underscore the unreliability of this price discovery. With 15 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 5, this market appears more suitable for hedging specific esports knowledge than for serious capital allocation.

Resolution rules

If LYON wins the LCS 2026: Shopify Rebellion vs. LYON League of Legends match originally scheduled for Apr 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 503.8%

IY (No) 12010.1%

Adj IY 11866%

CRI 5

RV 627%

VR 2.53

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	503.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12010.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11866%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	627%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.53	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 11:59:52 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 11:53:30 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLOLGAME-26APR191600SRLY-LY yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →