Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends is priced at 21¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
21¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Outcome
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$116K
Identifier
0x15d2e66d...fa1b
Jun 8, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$15
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Family volume
$116K
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Identifier
0x15d2e66d…fa1b
Event family
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$116K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends 21¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.