Will Ryan Blaney be the AdventHealth 400 Winner?

Ryan Blaney's odds at 6¢ reflect a heavily undervalued position given the 47,270% implied yield on a Yes resolution, suggesting either extreme risk aversion or mispricing in this thin market with just $32,286 open interest. The 1¢ spread and stable 7-day price action indicate low volatility despite the massive yield differential, which is unusual for such a skewed probability structure with only 15 days to the May 4th race. The high Cliff Risk Index of 19 combined with neutral regime conditions suggests this market could experience sharp repricing closer to event resolution if new information emerges about Blaney's competitive positioning.

Resolution rules

If Ryan Blaney wins the 2026 AdventHealth 400, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade