Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%?

90¢mid

Bid/Ask 85/95¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·11d remaining

KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T1.6

7-day price7 snapshots · 12 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 588.7% implied yield on the Yes side. The 7-day price surge from 28¢ to 85¢ suggests recent conviction building among sparse traders, but with only 11 days to expiry and a 10¢ spread, execution risk is severe. The 6/10 cliff risk index combined with zero liquidity indicates this market could gap sharply on actual Q1 2026 GDP data release, making it unsuitable for meaningful position-taking.

Resolution rules

If Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 1.6 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 588.7%

IY (No) 18904.4%

Adj IY 9452%

CRI 6

Overround 5.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	588.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18904.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9452%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	5.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:25:17 AM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 8:23:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T1.6 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →