Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 an.... This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 431.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 9.6% on the No side, suggesting the 14¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 4-6% Democratic margin relative to historical baselines and current polling trends.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 431.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 9.6% on the No side, suggesting the 14¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 4-6% Democratic margin relative to historical baselines and current polling trends. The $533.73 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to large moves from even modest order flow. With 566 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this market has meaningful time decay but faces elevated binary risk, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with wide bid-ask spreads and potential slippage.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 4 and 6 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (3)
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B5 yes 100