Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be between 6% and 9%?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $330.26, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true probability. The asymmetric implied yields (752.7% for Yes vs. 11.5% for No) signal severe mispricing, likely driven by the illiquid conditions rather than genuine market conviction that Letlow wins by 6-9%. With nearly 400 days until expiry and a narrow resolution band in a competitive primary field, the low price may reflect both genuine uncertainty about the outcome and the difficulty of predicting such a specific margin.

Resolution rules

If the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary falls between 6% and 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regime

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