Will Tommy Tuberville be the Republican nominee for Governor in Alabama?

99¢

Bid/Ask 95/99¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $2,661.93·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXGOVALNOMR-26-TTUB

7-day price188 snapshots · 22 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing in near-certainty (99¢) that Tuberville wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Alabama, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields—9.7% for Yes versus 3,485% for No—suggest minimal liquidity and outsized risk for contrarian bettors. With only $2,661.93 in open interest and a 4¢ spread despite 199 days to expiry, this appears to be a thin, low-conviction market where the high price may reflect limited competition rather than genuine consensus, particularly given the 129% realized volatility and 4.13 vol ratio indicating substantial price swings relative to typical markets.

Resolution rules

If Tommy Tuberville wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Alabama Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9.7%

IY (No) 3495.8%

Adj IY 3349%

CRI 19

RV 105%

VR 3.34

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	9.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3495.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3349%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	105%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.34	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:18:12 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:19 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVALNOMR-26-TTUB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →