Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market prices Unit's token launch at just 23% probability with an extremely asymmetric 474% implied yield on the Yes side versus 42% on the No side, suggesting significant disagreement between buyers and sellers or potential mispricing. The 7¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 23¢ price, and the 744% realized volatility combined with a 3.35 vol ratio indicates extreme price swings despite minimal liquidity ($5.88 in 24h volume). With ~22 months until expiry, the high cliff risk index (3) and rapid 2.6 information arrivals per hour suggest this market is sensitive to Unit announcements, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional momentum currently.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Unit (https://hyperunit.xyz/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Unit, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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