Will Xavier Edwards lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·188d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-XEDW

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 4660.2%, suggesting either severe mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient depth to discover accurate pricing. The 300% price surge over seven days (1¢ to 4¢) combined with a high Cliff Risk Index of 24 indicates volatility and potential manipulation risk in this thinly-traded contract.

Resolution rules

If Xavier Edwards leads Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4660.2%

IY (No) 8.1%

Adj IY 2330%

CRI 24

Overround 0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4660.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2330%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 2:50:08 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 2:38:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-XEDW yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →