SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 4 outcomes4 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses May 23, 2027 · 379d

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Supporting Character

Leader sits at 67% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

67%

Katsuki Bakugo

runner-up 5¢leader 67¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

Tie

Spread

62pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$2

thin orderbook

Closes

May 23, 2027

379 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayKatsuki Bakugo: 67% (22 days, 20 points)Katsuki Bakugo: 67% on 2026-05-08Tie: 5% on 2026-04-10Jinshi: 3% (22 days, 12 points)Jinshi: 3% on 2026-05-08
Katsuki Bakugo67¢Tie5¢Jinshi3¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 22d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This represents the market's current odds that a specific character—likely Katsuki Bakugo based on the contract code—will win the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Supporting Character. The 67% probability reflects confidence in this outcome, though with roughly one-third of traders expecting an alternative winner. The current level is driven by the character's prominence in a major ongoing series and likely strong fan voting patterns typical of Crunchyroll's annual awards. The resolution hinges on the official awards ceremony, typically held in early 2027 when Crunchyroll announces winners. Key uncertainties include late-season character development that could shift fan sentiment, voter participation rates across different demographics, and whether competing characters from other popular series capture stronger support. The relatively thin market volume ($3M across contracts) suggests modest but engaged interest in this specific category. Changes in market pricing would likely reflect new episodes airing, award nomination patterns becoming public, or shifts in fan engagement metrics.

  • Character prominence and development trajectory in their source series between now and the 2026 awards voting window
  • Fan voting participation rates and demographic distribution, which historically favors characters from series with large, engaged fanbases
  • Competition from supporting characters in other concurrent popular anime, particularly from ongoing series with comparable viewership
  • Any official award nomination announcements or category rule changes Crunchyroll publishes prior to voting
  • Market liquidity and contract volume trends—current volumes suggest niche interest that could shift with major anime releases or fandom activity

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.