Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
18 contracts
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino: Total Games: Over” vs “Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang: Total Games: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino: Total Games: Over
Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino: Total Games: Over 28.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24COBPEL-29
Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino: Total Games: Over 38.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24COBPEL-39
Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino: Total Games: Over 33.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24COBPEL-34
Cluster 2
Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang: Total Games: Over
Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang: Total Games: Over 31.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24DIAZHA-32
Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang: Total Games: Over 41.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24DIAZHA-42
Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang: Total Games: Over 36.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24DIAZHA-37
Cluster 3
Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov: Total Games: Over
Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov: Total Games: Over 31.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24FARSHA-32
Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov: Total Games: Over 41.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24FARSHA-42
Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov: Total Games: Over 36.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24FARSHA-37
Cluster 4
Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot: Total Games: Over
Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot: Total Games: Over 26.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24FAUVAC-27
Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot: Total Games: Over 36.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24FAUVAC-37
Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot: Total Games: Over 31.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24FAUVAC-32
Cluster 5
Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: Total Games: Over
Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: Total Games: Over 30.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24LANPRA-31
Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: Total Games: Over 40.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24LANPRA-41
Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: Total Games: Over 35.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY24LANPRA-36
Cluster 6
Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov: Total Games: Over 3
Cluster 7
Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz: Total Games: Over 38.5 games
Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz: Total Games: Over 38.5 games
KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY25MUNHUR-39
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev match will extend beyond 14.5 games (roughly meaning more than two sets will be closely contested or go to tiebreaks). The 56% price suggests traders see meaningful probability for a competitive, extended matchup rather than a decisive result. Key drivers include both players' current form, head-to-head history, and the specific surface and tournament context where they meet. The probability would shift based on recent tournament results, injury reports, or fitness levels reported closer to the match date. Market liquidity is concentrated in the Over 14.5 games contract, while minimal trading volume in the extreme-length outcomes (Over 24.5) suggests low conviction about marathon sets.
- ›Sinner's recent performance trajectory and any injuries or fatigue from prior matches in the tournament
- ›Medvedev's serve consistency and baseline depth, which historically extend rallies against aggressive opponents
- ›Head-to-head records on the specific surface and conditions expected for this match
- ›Tournament round and schedule context—players' fatigue levels differ sharply between early rounds and finals
- ›Market volume concentration in Over 14.5 games vs. extreme outcomes suggests intermediate-length matches are priced more confidently than blowouts or epics
What moved the line
- May 24Total Games: Over 35.5 games↑28pp19→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Total Games: Over 36.5 games↑27pp19→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Total Games: Over 33.5 games↑25pp19→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Total Games: Over 35.5 games↑24pp25→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Total Games: Over 38.5 games↑23pp24→47¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FClast 60% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC - More Marketslast 83% · 0d
- Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Jan 1, 2027last 82% · 0d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 0d
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinetlast 95% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.