SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·2 source contracts·Polymarket 2·refreshed just now·Closes May 31, 2026 · 3d

Best Chinese AI Company end of May

Leader sits at 94% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

94%

Alibaba

runner-up 3¢leader 94¢

Outcomes

2

winner-take-all

Runner-up

Baidu

Spread

91pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$8K

modest

Closes

May 31, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

2 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAlibaba: 90% (10 days, 10 points)Alibaba: 90% on 2026-05-27Baidu: 4% (10 days, 10 points)Baidu: 4% on 2026-05-27
Alibaba90¢Baidu4¢
Top 2 candidates by current price · 10d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 21Alibaba6pp7985¢ · Polymarket
  • May 22Alibaba6pp8591¢ · Polymarket
  • May 23Alibaba6pp9185¢ · Polymarket
  • May 26Alibaba5pp9085¢ · Polymarket
  • May 27Alibaba5pp8590¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in technology

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (94% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.