Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2027
256 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 2
Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 3
Will Wisconsin have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 4
Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 5
Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 6
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 7
Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 8
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Analysis
This probability estimates the chance that Arizona's gubernatorial race will have the smallest margin of victory among all 2026 U.S. gubernatorial elections. At 9%, the market assigns this outcome low probability, suggesting analysts expect other states' races to be closer. Arizona's margin depends on the relative competitiveness of its governor's race compared to Iowa (currently favored at 11%), Ohio (6%), and other competitive states. The main drivers are candidate recruitment, state demographic trends, and national political momentum. The election itself on November 3, 2026, will resolve this uncertainty, but earlier polling and candidate announcements through the summer will materially shift expectations about whether Arizona remains competitive relative to other battleground states.
- ›Iowa is currently assigned higher probability (11%) of having the smallest margin, suggesting the market views it as more competitive than Arizona
- ›Related Arizona contracts show 15¢ odds on Republicans winning by 4+ points, indicating the market expects a decisive rather than narrow Republican victory
- ›The metric requires Arizona to have the absolute smallest margin among all 2026 gubernatorial races nationwide, not merely be competitive
- ›Polling data and candidate emergence in other swing states through mid-2026 will determine whether Arizona's race remains among the tightest nationally
- ›Election dynamics in Ohio and Iowa will directly impact Arizona's probability by determining which state's race ends up closest
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.