Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$80
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2027
186 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Wisconsin have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 2
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 3
Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 4
Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 5
Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 6
Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 7
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Analysis
This market predicts whether Arizona will see the closest race among all 2026 U.S. gubernatorial elections. At 8%, the probability reflects Arizona's moderate competitiveness relative to other swing states, with Kansas currently favored at 3% due to its different political dynamics. Arizona's probability is driven by historical voting patterns and demographic trends that typically produce mid-range margins compared to reliably red or blue states. The election occurs on November 3, 2026, which will definitively resolve this contract by measuring the actual margin of victory across all gubernatorial races that year. Factors affecting this probability include candidate quality, turnout patterns, and whether Arizona attracts higher-profile national attention than competing swing states.
- ›Arizona's 2022 gubernatorial margin was 12 points; competitiveness requires significantly tighter final results than recent cycles
- ›Kansas contracts trade at 3% despite historically lower margins, suggesting market participants view Arizona as less likely to produce the smallest margin
- ›Only four other states have active contracts, meaning Arizona competes against Iowa (12%), Georgia (10%), Michigan (5%), and Kansas (3%) for the lowest margin
- ›Candidate recruitment and quality differentials between Arizona and other swing states could shift probabilities as the 2026 cycle develops
- ›Turnout and demographic shifts in Arizona maturing since 2022 will influence whether margins compress to competitive single-digit levels
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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