Will Trump post on Truth Social between 4:00 AM and 4:59 AM ET this week
Leader sits at 26% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1-2 AM
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
2-3 AM
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$303
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump post on Truth Social between
Will Trump post on Truth Social between 1:00 AM and 1:59 AM ET this week?: 1-2 AM
KXTRUMPTIME-26MAY09-H1
Will Trump post on Truth Social between 3:00 AM and 3:59 AM ET this week?: 3-4 AM
KXTRUMPTIME-26MAY09-H3
Will Trump post on Truth Social between 2:00 AM and 2:59 AM ET this week?: 2-3 AM
KXTRUMPTIME-26MAY09-H2
Will Trump post on Truth Social between 4:00 AM and 4:59 AM ET this week?: 4-5 AM
KXTRUMPTIME-26MAY09-H4
What moved the line
- May 61-2 AM↓38pp59→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 62-3 AM↓27pp38→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 72-3 AM↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 33-4 AM↓8pp20→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 64-5 AM↓8pp17→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 h ago.