Gemini 3.5 released by...
Leader sits at 45% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
July 31
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$10K
liquid
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
83 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Gemini 3.5 released by
Analysis
This market estimates a 23% chance that Google releases Gemini 3.5 by May 31, 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about Google's release timeline, with contracts suggesting traders view a June 30 deadline (40¢) as significantly more likely than May 31 (19¢). The main drivers are Google's historical release pace for iterative model updates and public statements about their AI roadmap. The May 31 deadline is the nearest near-term catalyst; if Google announces or releases Gemini 3.5 before then, the May contract resolves positively. If no announcement occurs by early June, traders would likely shift probability to the June 30 contract, indicating sequential rather than simultaneous releases are expected.
- ›Google's track record shows roughly 4-6 month intervals between major Gemini releases (2.0 to 3.0); current date is May 3, giving only 28 days until May 31 deadline
- ›The June 30 contract trades at 40¢ versus 19¢ for May 31, suggesting the market assigns 2x higher probability to the later date, indicating concentration of releases in Q2
- ›No official Google announcement or leak as of May 3, 2026 confirms a May 31 release, which typically would be publicly disclosed weeks in advance
- ›Competing LLM releases (Grok 5 showing 10¢ for June 30) suggest crowded release windows may influence timing decisions
- ›Trading volume on the May 31 contract ($1,448 in 24h) is substantial enough to indicate active price discovery rather than illiquidity-driven mispricing
What moved the line
- May 6June 30↓31pp51→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 6May 31↓15pp23→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 3June 30↑6pp45→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 7June 30↑6pp20→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 7July 31↑6pp31→37¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.