Will Joel Brennan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
141 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mandela Barnes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin
Will Mandela Barnes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?: Mandela Barnes
KXGOVWINOMD-26-MBAR
Cluster 2
Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin
Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?: Francesca Hong
KXGOVWINOMD-26-FHON
Cluster 3
Will Sara Rodriguez be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin
Will Sara Rodriguez be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?: Sara Rodriguez
KXGOVWINOMD-26-SROD
Analysis
This probability indicates about a one-in-three chance that Joel Brennan will win the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin Governor. The prediction reflects ongoing uncertainty about the state's Democratic primary, where multiple candidates typically compete for the nomination. Key factors driving the current level include Brennan's existing political standing in Wisconsin, the total number of potential competitors entering the race, and recent polling or endorsement patterns within the state Democratic Party. The nomination process will effectively be decided during Wisconsin's primary election, typically held in August of even-numbered years. Major catalysts include candidate announcements, campaign finance reports showing fundraising strength, endorsements from party leaders, and any shifts in public polling as the primary approaches.
- ›Announced candidacy status: Brennan's formal entry into the race or public signals of intent
- ›Fundraising and resources: Campaign finance reports showing competitive spending levels versus other Democratic candidates
- ›Party establishment support: Endorsements from Wisconsin Democratic leaders, labor unions, and influential party figures
- ›Polling trends: Direct primary preference surveys tracking Brennan's support among likely Democratic voters
- ›Field composition: Number and viability of other declared or likely candidates competing in the Democratic primary
What moved the line
- Jun 12Mandela Barnes↓9pp49→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Mandela Barnes↓7pp38→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 11Sara Rodriguez↑5pp10→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Sara Rodriguez↑5pp15→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Sara Rodriguez↑5pp17→22¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Armenia Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 96% · 0d
- Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victorylast 85% · 2d
- Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primarylast 97% · 2d
- Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%last 97% · 2d
- Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12last 93% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.