GPT-5.6 released by...
Leader sits at 79% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 78%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
78¢
July 31
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$18K
liquid
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
64 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
GPT-5.6 released by
GPT-5.6 released by...?: July 31
0xadc76e…52e4
GPT-5.6 released by...?: June 30
0xe69b38…7224
GPT-5.6 released by...?: May 31
0xe1a9dc…18c2
GPT-5.6 released by...?: June 5
0x45eee5…d604
GPT-5.6 released by...?: June 8
0x2dfe12…8c60
GPT-5.6 released by...?: June 15
0x1ff94c…6277
Analysis
The market assigns a 92% probability that GPT-5.6 will be released by July 31, 2026, based on aggregated predictions across six outcome-based contracts. This reflects trader expectations about OpenAI's development timeline and release cadence. The high concentration of probability around July 31 suggests most traders expect the model within roughly two months, while tail probabilities at May 31 and June 5 are minimal at 6% and 34% respectively. The outcome hinges on OpenAI's internal development progress, any public announcements about release dates, and competitive pressures from other labs like Anthropic or Google. The key uncertainty is whether announced or leaked timelines will shift the distribution earlier or later. Major catalysts include OpenAI developer conferences, earnings calls, or official statements about GPT-5.6 availability.
- ›OpenAI's historical release cadence and public roadmap disclosures will directly constrain plausible timelines
- ›Competitive announcements from Anthropic, Google, or Meta about advanced model releases may accelerate or delay market expectations
- ›Technical delays or safety review processes at OpenAI could push release past July 31, shifting probability mass to later dates
- ›Early access or beta announcements would partially resolve uncertainty before general release, affecting contract pricing
- ›The 92% weight on July 31 versus 70% on June 15 indicates traders expect development to extend into late Q2 or early Q3 2026
What moved the line
- May 26July 31↓13pp92→79¢ · Polymarket
- May 26June 8↓12pp37→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 27June 8↓12pp25→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 26June 15↓10pp64→54¢ · Polymarket
- May 25June 5↓8pp34→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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