SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.0T-1.5T
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
1 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$10K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.0T-1.5T
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.0T-1.5T
0x586555…e898
Analysis
This market estimates a 3% probability that SpaceX's IPO closing valuation will fall between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion. The low probability reflects skepticism that SpaceX could achieve this valuation range at IPO given current market comparables and recent private valuations, which have ranged between $180 billion and $210 billion as of 2024. The main drivers are SpaceX's revenue trajectory, profitability timeline, and investor appetite for space-sector companies at IPO. An actual IPO announcement with pricing details would be the primary catalyst to resolve this outcome. The outcome depends heavily on timing—valuations could shift substantially based on Starship development progress, government contracts awarded, and broader market conditions for growth stocks between now and any public offering.
- ›SpaceX's most recent private valuation (2024) was significantly below this $1.0T-$1.5T range, requiring 5-7x upside between current and IPO
- ›Successful Starship orbital test flights and demonstrated revenue from next-generation launch capabilities could support higher valuations
- ›No public IPO date has been announced; Elon Musk has signaled interest but emphasized focusing on core business operations first
- ›Space sector IPO comparables (e.g., Axiom Space, Rocket Lab) have generally priced well below $100B, limiting precedent for $1T+ valuation
- ›Time decay risk: this contract will only resolve if SpaceX completes an IPO by contract expiration, which requires an actual offering announcement and execution
Recently closed in ai tech
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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