What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
4 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026
What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $192
0x1cc9ec…7316
Analysis
This market is asking whether NVIDIA's stock price will reach $240 or higher at some point in May 2026. Currently trading at 41%, the probability reflects uncertainty about near-term semiconductor demand, earnings momentum, and macroeconomic conditions. The gap between the leading outcome ($240) and runner-up ($248) suggests modest disagreement on upside potential—traders are pricing in meaningful uncertainty about whether the stock reaches even moderate gains from current levels. Downside risk to $192 is priced at 20%, indicating some hedging against a broader market correction or tech sector slowdown. The most significant driver would be NVIDIA's first-quarter earnings report and forward guidance in late April/early May 2026, which typically moves AI and semiconductor stocks substantially. Secondary factors include broader semiconductor industry trends, competition dynamics, and macro sentiment shifts.
- ›NVIDIA's Q1 2026 earnings release and data center guidance could shift probabilities sharply based on AI demand signals and margin expectations
- ›The $240 target represents roughly 8-12% upside from typical late-May price ranges, suggesting markets are pricing moderate conviction about continued strength
- ›Polymarket volume concentration ($7,389 in 24h for $240 contract) indicates active trading but relatively modest liquidity compared to major exchanges
- ›The downside contract at $192 (20% probability) reflects tail risk pricing—a 20%+ drawdown scenario—suggesting some traders are hedging against semiconductor cyclicality or broader tech correction
- ›Market structure with 7 discrete outcomes creates winner-take-all dynamics, potentially exaggerating probabilities for mid-range strikes while compressing tails
What moved the line
- May 21↓ $192↓4pp16→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 22↓ $192↓3pp12→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 25↓ $192↓3pp7→4¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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