Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...
Leader sits at 97% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 13
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
June 30
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
23 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill by June 30, 2026—giving roughly a 2 in 3 chance lawmakers will approve a major spending or tax measure through the fast-track process that requires only a simple majority. Reconciliation bills bypass the 60-vote filibuster threshold, making them a key tool for passing partisan legislation. The 69% probability suggests traders view passage as more likely than not, though still uncertain. Key drivers include current Senate composition, the status of budget negotiations, and whether party leadership has secured sufficient votes. The immediate catalyst is whether Democrats or Republicans can maintain internal unity on a bill framework, with June 30 marking the formal deadline for this specific resolution window.
- ›Budget resolution adoption status: A budget resolution must pass first to enable reconciliation instructions, which would need to occur early June to meet the June 30 deadline
- ›Senate floor schedule: Leadership must allocate limited floor time for debate and voting, competing against other legislative priorities in the final weeks of the session
- ›Coalition stability: Passage requires holding a simple majority (51 votes with current composition), meaning zero or near-zero defections depending on party control
- ›Substantive policy agreement: Senators must reach consensus on fiscal priorities (spending levels, tax provisions, etc.) before floor consideration becomes feasible
- ›External pressure events: Economic data, fiscal crises, or political developments between June 1-30 could shift urgency and willingness to spend floor time on reconciliation
What moved the line
- Jun 3June 13↑21pp52→73¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4June 13↑18pp73→91¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4June 30↑15pp75→90¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5June 13↑6pp91→97¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2June 13↑5pp47→52¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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