Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
13%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$56K
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
0x838316…e97b
Analysis
This 10% probability reflects the market's assessment that Iran will formally agree to allow unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31—just six days away. The low probability reflects the absence of active negotiations or public statements from Iranian officials signaling such an agreement. Movement in this probability would depend on either a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough or new geopolitical pressure. The main catalyst is any official announcement from Iranian government representatives or a multilateral agreement addressing Hormuz shipping restrictions. Current market positioning suggests participants view an agreement within this timeframe as unlikely without unexpected diplomatic intervention.
- ›No public negotiations between Iran and international parties regarding Hormuz shipping access are currently reported as of late May 2026
- ›The six-day resolution window is extremely short, requiring either an existing secret negotiation to surface publicly or a rapid policy reversal from Iranian leadership
- ›Recent geopolitical tensions or cooperation levels between Iran and Western/regional powers would significantly influence likelihood of such an agreement materializing
- ›Any statement from Iran's Supreme Leader, Foreign Ministry, or Revolutionary Guard Corps contradicting or supporting unrestricted Hormuz passage would move probability materially
- ›Trading volume of $81,022 in 24 hours suggests moderate market interest but limited conviction, indicating uncertainty about resolution mechanisms or baseline conditions
What moved the line
- May 25Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?↑3pp12→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?↑3pp15→18¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (13% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as Deadlines Pass
Markets for a permanent US‑Iran peace deal by May 26 hit 0¢, and later deadlines (June 7, June 15) also fell by 3‑4¢. Meanwhile, internet restoration in Iran soared 42¢ to 67¢, suggesting a possible regime concession or internal change.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Heats Up
Markets are pricing a rapidly increasing probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal, with the July 31 contract jumping 15¢ to 54¢ and the June 30 contract up 13¢ to 42¢. A US blockade lift announcement by June 30 surged 18¢ to 64¢, signaling that de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz may be imminent.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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