Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
18%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$55K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
33 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?: June 30
0x5efa97…5f3e
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Israel and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026—currently estimated at 17%, roughly 1 in 6 odds. The low probability reflects the substantial barriers to negotiation: active military tensions, proxy conflicts, and the absence of direct diplomatic channels. The gap between the May 31 contract (4%) and June 30 contract (17%) suggests markets expect minimal progress in the next three weeks, with somewhat higher but still unlikely potential over the following month. Resolution will depend on whether serious multilateral negotiations materialize, any de-escalation of regional proxy activity, or third-party mediation breakthroughs. The upcoming months will likely show whether geopolitical momentum shifts toward dialogue or further away from it.
- ›No active direct Israeli-Iranian peace negotiations are currently documented as ongoing as of May 2026
- ›The price differential between May 31 (4%) and June 30 (17%) indicates markets assign minimal probability to near-term breakthroughs
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in the June 30 contract ($8,539 in 24h volume vs $14,892 on May 31), suggesting this is where forecasters expect any resolution signal to emerge
- ›Historical Israeli-Iranian relations show no precedent for bilateral permanent peace agreements, making any deal structurally novel and contingent on major third-party involvement
- ›Regional proxy conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon would need to show documented de-escalation to support higher peace-deal probability
What moved the line
- May 24June 30↑7pp11→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 21June 30↓6pp18→12¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (18% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as Deadlines Pass
Markets for a permanent US‑Iran peace deal by May 26 hit 0¢, and later deadlines (June 7, June 15) also fell by 3‑4¢. Meanwhile, internet restoration in Iran soared 42¢ to 67¢, suggesting a possible regime concession or internal change.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Heats Up
Markets are pricing a rapidly increasing probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal, with the July 31 contract jumping 15¢ to 54¢ and the June 30 contract up 13¢ to 42¢. A US blockade lift announcement by June 30 surged 18¢ to 64¢, signaling that de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz may be imminent.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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