Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 93% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
93%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
37 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by
Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?: May 31
0x891506…fff3
Recently closed in fed rate
- When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chairlast 96% · 5d
- Will Jerome Powell be out as Chair pro tempore of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 20, 2026nolast 3% · 5d
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...last 88% · 11d
- How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: ≤49last 97% · 13d
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...last 97% · 14d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (93% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Edge Lower – 0-Cut Contract Drops 3¢
The market for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 fell from 72¢ to 69¢, while the June 'no change' contract remains at 98¢. A small but growing possibility of cuts is being priced in for later in the year.
Fed Rate Path Firms as 'No Change' June Contract Hits 98¢, Rate Cut Expectations Fade
The 'Fed Decision in June: No change' contract on Polymarket rose 1¢ to 98¢ on 435k volume, the highest conviction level of any Fed market. Meanwhile, the 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026: 0' contract fell 5¢ to 67¢, signaling some erosion in the hawkish consensus. Kalshi's 0bps hike contract is at 96¢ with tight spreads, confirming the market sees no rate action at the June meeting.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.