Fed Rate Cut Expectations Edge Lower – 0-Cut Contract Drops 3¢
The market for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 fell from 72¢ to 69¢, while the June 'no change' contract remains at 98¢. A small but growing possibility of cuts is being priced in for later in the year.
Key takeaways
- 01
The market for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 fell from 72¢ to 69¢, while the June 'no change' contract remains at 98¢.
- 02
A small but growing possibility of cuts is being priced in for later in the year.
- 03
The Federal Reserve policy market saw a subtle but important shift.
Full analysis
The Federal Reserve policy market saw a subtle but important shift. The 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026: 0' contract on Polymarket (`0xd4e77ba6f29fc09350`) declined 3¢ to 69¢ on volume of 51,453, suggesting a growing minority expects at least one cut. Meanwhile, the June FOMC meeting 'No change' contract (`0xde04b189b3f19eaccd`) remains near-certain at 98¢ with 322,095 volume. The July meeting '25 bps decrease' contract sits at just 3¢ (`0xb5c0abeecb5502e6e8`). The most liquid Fed contract is the Polymarket '50+ bps decrease in June' at 1¢ but with a massive 904,207 volume – mostly noise, but any dovish pivot could trigger a violent repricing. Traders should also watch the Jerome Powell departure contract; the chance he leaves by May 31 is now 94¢ (`0x891506111ddfbd8e95`), up significantly. Key contracts: `KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-` ('Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2026 meeting?') at 1¢, and `0xd4e77ba6f29fc09350` (0 cuts in 2026).
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sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-