Fed Rate Path Firms as 'No Change' June Contract Hits 98¢, Rate Cut Expectations Fade

Federal Reserve policy markets are sending a clear signal: no rate change at the June 2026 meeting is nearly certain. The 'Fed Decision in June: No change' contract on Polymarket trades at 98¢ (up 1¢) on massive volume of 435,041, making it the most actively traded Fed contract today. On Kalshi, the 'Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?' contract is at 96¢ with a 1¢ spread and 64k volume, confirming the consensus.

However, the more interesting action is in the rate cut count markets for 2026. The 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026: 0 (0 bps)' contract fell 5¢ to 67¢ on 69k volume, suggesting a small but notable shift toward expecting at least one cut this year. The '1 cut' contract trades at 16¢, '2 cuts' at 6¢, and '3 cuts' at 2¢. The 'Fed rate hike in 2026?' contract rose 4¢ to 33¢, showing 1-in-3 odds of a hike, which would be a major policy reversal. Key contracts to watch include the Kalshi series for June (cut 25bps at 2¢, hike 25bps at 1¢, >25bps hike at 1¢) and the Polymarket July decision series (no change at 93¢, 25bps decrease at 4¢). The 'Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?' at 2¢ (-1¢) is an intriguing tail contract for a potential Powell successor.