Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting
Leader sits at 75% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 70%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Fed maintains rate
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
70¢
Hike 25bps
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$19K
liquid
Closes
Jan 26, 2028
490 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Federal Reserve
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-H25
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27MAR-C25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-H25
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-C25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?: Hike >25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H26
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-C25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?: Hike >25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-H26
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?: Cut >25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-C26
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27DEC-C25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27APR-C25
Analysis
This contract measures whether the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged at their September 2027 meeting, which markets currently assess at 84% probability based on trading activity. The high probability reflects expectations that inflation will remain near target and economic conditions will stabilize by late 2027, reducing pressure for rate changes. The primary drivers moving this probability would be shifts in inflation data, labor market conditions, and Fed communications over the next 15 months. The next major catalyst is the Fed's September 2026 meeting in roughly three months, which will signal the Committee's near-term policy stance and inform expectations for 2027. Subsequent inflation reports, employment data, and any Fed guidance changes will incrementally adjust market expectations for the September 2027 outcome as traders refine their economic forecasts across the forecast horizon.
- ›Current market pricing shows 84% probability of no rate change in September 2027, with 15% probability assigned to a 25bps hike and minimal probability to cuts
- ›The nearest-term contract (July 2026) shows 84% probability of no change, suggesting traders expect rate stability to persist through the intermediate term
- ›September 2026 contracts price in 60% probability of no change and 3% probability of a 25bps cut, indicating some expectation of easing before 2027
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in the July 2026 near-term contract ($52,675 24h volume), with volume declining significantly for later-dated contracts
- ›The outcome depends critically on inflation trajectory, labor market resilience, and Fed communication between now and September 2027—approximately 15 months of economic data and policy guidance remain to be released
What moved the line
- Sep 17Hike 25bps↑14pp55→69¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Fed maintains rate↓13pp42→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Cut >25bps↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Hike >25bps↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Hike 25bps↑5pp17→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Fed Rate Decision Heats Up: 56¢ Probability for a September Hike
The largest macro market today revolves around the Fed's September 2026 decision. The 'Hike by 25bps' contract sits at 56¢, implying a 56% chance of tightening. Over 1.7M contracts have traded across the rate decision complex, making it the most active macro event on the board. The hold-at-0bps market is trading at 41¢ with 1.2M volume alone.
Fed Rate Decision Markets See Massive Volume as September 2026 Meeting Approaches
The KXFEDDECISION contracts are the most heavily traded prediction markets overall, with over 500K volume on the 'hike 0bps' outcome. The market currently prices a 46% chance of no change and 53% for a 25bp hike, reflecting deep uncertainty about the Fed's next move.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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