Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting
Leader sits at 88% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 74%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Fed maintains rate
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
74¢
Fed maintains rate
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$327K
liquid
Closes
Jul 28, 2027
406 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Federal Reserve
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-C25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-C25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-C25
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-C25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Cut >25bps
KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-C26
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-27JAN-H25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-27JUN-H0
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H0
Analysis
This contract predicts whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by more than 25 basis points at their September 2027 meeting, currently priced at 94% probability. The market is pricing in a significant likelihood of rate increases by that date, reflecting expectations that current economic conditions will warrant tightening. The 94% probability suggests traders expect inflation or economic growth concerns to persist, or that the Fed will need to normalize rates from current levels. Near-term contracts show the market expects rates to hold steady through mid-2026 before diverging—June and July 2026 maintain rates are priced above 90%, while September 2026 drops to 68%. The September 2027 meeting is 16 months away, giving substantial time for economic data to shift expectations. Key drivers include inflation trends, labor market strength, and Fed communications between now and that meeting.
- ›Current Fed funds rate level and trajectory through 2026-2027 will determine whether >25bps hikes are necessary or appropriate
- ›Market expectations show high confidence in rate holds through summer 2026, but declining confidence in holds by September 2026 (68% vs 90%+), indicating a transition is priced in
- ›Inflation data releases, employment reports, and Fed forward guidance over the next 16 months will be primary drivers of repricing
- ›The contract's 94% probability significantly exceeds the near-term hold probabilities, suggesting market expects rate environment to shift materially between mid-2026 and September 2027
- ›Historical Fed hiking cycles and current economic baseline assumptions about growth and price stability will anchor trader positioning
What moved the line
- Jun 16Fed maintains rate↑25pp44→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Fed maintains rate↑19pp64→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Hike 25bps↓17pp25→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Hike 25bps↑10pp4→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Fed maintains rate↓9pp83→74¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026last 59% · 0d
- Will Powell say Softening at his Apr 2026 press conferencelast 95% · 0d
- Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meetinglast 7% · 0d
- How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meetinglast 65% · 0d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 17% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Hawks Soar: Zero Rate Cuts in 2026 Becomes Base Case
The probability of no Fed rate cuts in 2026 jumped 12¢ to 81¢ after stronger-than-expected payrolls and hawkish FOMC minutes, overturning earlier expectations of a cutting cycle. The 'Fed rate hike in 2026' market surged to 52¢, now a coin flip.
Tariff Shock Rattles Everything: VIX +10%, S&P -2.2%, Oil +7.6%
Tariff escalation triggered a sharp market downturn with VIX jumping 10% to 38.26, S&P 500 down 2.2%, and oil up 7.6%, while prediction markets price stagflation fears and a 37¢ recession probability.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.