What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony
Leader sits at 67% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 65%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Inflation
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
65¢
Political / Politics
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
19 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: President
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-PRES
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Kevin / Warsh
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-KEVI
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Good Evening
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-GOOD
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Tariff
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-TARI
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Uncertainty
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-UNCE
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Productivity
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-PROD
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-CRYP
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Recession
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-RECE
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Pandemic
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-PAND
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Iran / Iranian
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-IRAN
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Trump
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-TRUM
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Event does not qualify
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-NQE
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Political / Politics
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-POLI
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: AI / Artificial Intelligence
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-AI
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Stock Market
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-STOC
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Dual Mandate
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-DUAL
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Oil / Gas / Gasoline
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-OIL
What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Inflation
KXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31-INFL
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Jerome Powell will mention inflation during his acceptance remarks at the Kennedy Profile in Courage Award ceremony. The 64% leading contract reflects market participants' assessment that Powell will address inflation in his speech, based on its relevance to his tenure and recent economic conditions. The main driver of this probability is the nature of Powell's role as Federal Reserve Chair during a period of significant inflation management, making it a natural topic for acceptance remarks. Market uncertainty around the final content of Powell's speech—which depends on his specific focus and framing—represents the counterbalancing factor. The speech is scheduled for May 31, 2026, providing the resolution event. Volume concentration in the "President" contract (59¢, $265) suggests market focus on formal framing, while the "Recession" and "Crypto" contracts at lower prices indicate skepticism about more speculative topics appearing in the remarks.
- ›Powell's Federal Reserve tenure has been defined substantially by inflation management from 2021-2026, making it a natural reference point in acceptance remarks
- ›The Kennedy Profile in Courage Award ceremony typically features formal, institutional remarks focused on leadership challenges and policy decisions rather than technical specifics
- ›The "Inflation" contract at 64% trades notably higher than "Recession" (27¢) and "Crypto" (7¢), suggesting the market sees inflation as more central to Powell's likely narrative than other economic topics
- ›Resolution depends entirely on the exact text of Powell's May 31 remarks; market-maker pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about his chosen emphasis
- ›High volume in the "President" contract indicates market focus on formality level and tone, which may correlate with whether Powell discusses substantive policy topics
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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