When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 96% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
96%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 3, 2026
40 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?: May 15–22
0x0ebc73…92db
Analysis
Markets are currently pricing a 64% probability that Jerome Powell will depart as Fed Chair between May 15–22, 2026. This reflects trader expectations about the timing of his exit from the position, with the bulk of probability mass concentrated in this narrow window rather than spread across later dates. The high concentration in the May 15–22 contract, versus only 20% assigned to May 23–29 and minimal probability for June dates, suggests traders expect either an announcement or departure event within days. Key factors influencing this probability include scheduled Fed communications, economic data releases, and political developments that might trigger or confirm Powell's departure timeline. The outcome will be determined by official announcements from the Federal Reserve or White House regarding Powell's transition plans or actual departure from office.
- ›The 64% probability is concentrated in a specific 8-day window (May 15–22), indicating traders expect a near-term trigger or announcement rather than a later departure
- ›Trading volume is highest in the nearest-term contract ($22,105 24h volume), with dramatically lower volume in subsequent weekly windows, suggesting limited conviction about later outcomes
- ›Powell's current term runs until 2026, making spring 2026 a plausible timeframe for succession planning or transition announcements in typical presidential cycles
- ›Any official Fed communication, presidential statement, or Senate confirmation hearing regarding Fed leadership would directly resolve or shift probabilities
- ›The runner-up contract (May 23–29) captures only 20% probability, meaning markets assign roughly 80% odds that if departure occurs, it happens in the May 15–22 window or not at all during these early June weeks
Recently closed in fed rate
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- How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: ≤49last 97% · 13d
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...last 97% · 13d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In fed rate
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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