Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2027-07-01T14:00:00.000Z
Leader sits at 26% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before July 1, 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Before January 1, 2028
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$27
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 202
Analysis
This contract estimates a 17% likelihood that Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te will leave office involuntarily before July 1, 2027. The relatively low probability reflects expectations that Lai will serve his full term absent major unforeseen events. Key drivers of this estimate include Taiwan's political stability, Lai's health and personal circumstances, and the absence of imminent constitutional threats. The probability could move significantly if health issues emerge, major political upheaval occurs, or cross-strait tensions escalate dramatically. The most concrete near-term indicators would be Lai's public health status, parliamentary developments, and any statements from major political opposition figures regarding potential impeachment or recall mechanisms. Resolution depends ultimately on whether Lai remains in office through the specified date.
- ›Lai Ching-te's current health status and any public medical disclosures or incidents between now and July 2027
- ›Taiwan's domestic political stability and any serious parliamentary or opposition movements toward impeachment or recall procedures
- ›Cross-strait military or diplomatic escalation that could create constitutional crises or emergency conditions
- ›The strength and unity of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party coalition in maintaining executive continuity
- ›Any major corruption scandals or personal crises that could force resignation or create institutional pressure for removal
What moved the line
- May 6Before July 1, 2027↑14pp10→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Before January 1, 2028↑4pp20→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Before January 1, 2028↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (26% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.