Before July 1, 2027 · Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 202
Before July 1, 2027 is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 202.
Price history
13¢ current
Contract brief
If Lai Ching-te leaves office before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before July 1, 2027
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Before January 1, 2028 26¢
Range
14¢-26¢
Family volume
$3
Identifier
KXLAIOUT-LCHI-27JUL01
Aug 16, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$10K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 202
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
Family volume
$3
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Lai Ching-te leaves office before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
Identifier
KXLAIOUT-LCHI-27JUL01
Event family
Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 202.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before January 1, 2028 26¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.