Real Betis at Girona
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
20 contracts
Closes
May 26, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Real Madrid at Barcelona: Totals: Over” vs “Will over 1.5 goals be scored”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Real Madrid at Barcelona: Totals: Over
Real Madrid at Barcelona: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY10BARRMA-2
Real Madrid at Barcelona: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY10BARRMA-4
Real Madrid at Barcelona: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY10BARRMA-3
Real Madrid at Barcelona: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY10BARRMA-1
Cluster 2
Will over 1.5 goals be scored
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY14RMAOVI-1
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY14VCFRVC-1
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY14GIRRSO-1
Cluster 3
Will over 2.5 goals be scored
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY14RMAOVI-2
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY14VCFRVC-2
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY14GIRRSO-2
Cluster 4
Real Betis at Real Sociedad: Totals: Over
Cluster 5
Will over 3.5 goals be scored
Cluster 6
Will over 4.5 goals be scored
Cluster 7
Getafe at Oviedo: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
Getafe at Oviedo: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY10OVIGET-4
Cluster 8
Celta Vigo at Atletico: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
Celta Vigo at Atletico: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY09ATMRCC-4
Cluster 9
Villarreal at Mallorca: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
Villarreal at Mallorca: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY10MALVIL-2
Cluster 10
Girona at Vallecano: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
Girona at Vallecano: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXLALIGATOTAL-26MAY11RVCGIR-4
What moved the line
- May 7Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑84pp2→86¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑21pp34→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑21pp33→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored↑12pp4→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored↑11pp25→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.