AI Model Race Intensifies as Anthropic Gains on OpenAI
The AI leadership race is heating up with Anthropic's Claude 5 release expectation jumping 16¢ to 38¢ for a June 30 launch, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 probability dropped 8¢ to 79¢. Markets now favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by end of June at 84¢. The 'Best AI in Jun' contract trades at 63¢ for Anthropic vs 16¢ for Google.
Key takeaways
- 01
The AI leadership race is heating up with Anthropic's Claude 5 release expectation jumping 16¢ to 38¢ for a June 30 launch, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 probability dropped 8¢ to 79¢.
- 02
Markets now favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by end of June at 84¢.
- 03
The 'Best AI in Jun' contract trades at 63¢ for Anthropic vs 16¢ for Google.
Full analysis
The AI competitive landscape is undergoing a significant repricing this week, with markets increasingly favoring Anthropic over OpenAI for model quality leadership. The polymarket contract 'Claude 5 released by June 30' (0x562d8e6be61af9176d) surged 16¢ to 38¢ on 10,691 volume, marking a dramatic shift in expectations. Simultaneously, 'GPT-5.6 released by June 30' (0xe69b388ee2691abc5a) dropped 8¢ to 79¢, suggesting OpenAI may be losing the release timing race.
Current best AI model markets show Anthropic dominating: 'best AI model end of June' (0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac) at 84¢, 'best AI model end of May' (0x5072d0bf27763754b7) at 100¢. Google sits at 13¢ for June and 0¢ for May. xAI (0x8aed35d66a2094c122) is at just 1¢ for end of June.
Longer-term positions are also shifting. The 'Best AI in Dec 2026' Kalshi contract (KXLLM1-26DEC31-A) has Anthropic leading at 63¢, Google at 16¢, OpenAI at 14¢, and xAI at 5¢. This represents a remarkable reversal from just months ago when OpenAI was the presumed leader.
Hardware implications are visible too. The B200 compute pricing contracts show 'B200 compute above $6.47 by June 30' at 23¢, reflecting expectations of stable or falling GPU pricing as supply catches up with demand.
Traders should watch the 'GPT-5.6 released by' term structure: May 31 at 1¢ (0xe1a9dc17214a900fab), June 8 at 12¢ (0x2dfe124d238e2e3573), June 15 at 60¢ (0x1ff94ce9a874202523), and July 31 at 88¢ (0xadc76ee95ed51195ce). The steep drop-off after June suggests the market expects a release within the next 4-6 weeks.
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