MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

30-day trend

Analysis

This 82% probability indicates that a specific candidate in Massachusetts's 6th congressional district Democratic primary is favored to win the party nomination. The strong likelihood reflects either consolidated support from major Democratic factions, a significant polling lead, or early organizational advantages in the district. The probability could shift downward if a rival candidate gains unexpected endorsements, if polling narrows significantly, or if turnout patterns differ from current expectations. The Massachusetts state primary date will be the critical resolution point, as it will definitively determine the Democratic nominee and either confirm the frontrunner's dominance or reveal a surprise challenger surge. Between now and the primary, candidate debate performance, late campaign spending, and endorsement patterns represent the main events that could alter current market expectations substantially.

• ›The leading contract has priced 82% compared to runners-up at 6%, indicating significant market consensus behind one candidate rather than a competitive four-way race
• ›Polymarket contract volume of $24 traded across the four outcomes suggests moderate liquidity and pricing based on actual trading activity rather than minimal interest
• ›The primary election date is the single point of resolution; no intermediate polling releases or scheduled debates are specified in available data
• ›Current frontrunner status could erode if consolidation patterns shift or if undecided voters break toward an alternative candidate in final weeks
• ›Massachusetts Democratic primary rules regarding voter eligibility, delegate allocation, and winner determination will mechanically resolve the outcome once votes are counted

What moved the line

• May 7Rachel Creemers↓8pp10→2¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Diann Slavit Baylis↑6pp6→12¢ · Polymarket
• May 2Kevin Larivee↓4pp7→3¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Rachel Creemers↓4pp13→9¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in election 2026

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• Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
• Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
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• What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds