Malta Parliamentary Election Winner
Leader sits at 93% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Labour Party
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Nationalist Party
Spread
86pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$43K
liquid
Closes
May 30, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Malta Parliamentary Election Winner
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 97% probability that Malta's Labour Party will win the next parliamentary election, with the Nationalist Party at 3%. This reflects current polling data and political momentum following recent governance performance and public approval trends. The main factors supporting Labour's dominance include polling leads and voter sentiment, while potential shifts could come from campaign developments, economic conditions, or unexpected political events. The resolution will occur when Malta holds its next general election, which is constitutionally due by 2027 but could be called earlier if the government dissolves parliament. The substantial 24-hour trading volume indicates active market engagement with this outcome.
- ›Labour Party maintains consistent polling leads over the Nationalist Party in recent surveys
- ›Current government approval ratings and economic performance directly influence voter preferences
- ›No scheduled election date has been announced, creating uncertainty about timing and potential political catalysts before voting occurs
- ›Historical election results show competitive two-party dynamics, with outcomes sometimes shifting from polling mid-campaign
- ›Trading volume concentration ($27k Labour vs $11k Nationalist in 24h) shows market confidence asymmetry rather than extreme certainty
What moved the line
- May 26Labour Party↓3pp98→95¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (93% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.