Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma
Leader sits at 52% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Montedio Yamagata
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs.
Spread
27pp
contested
24h volume
$366
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Montedio Yamagata will win an upcoming match against Thespa Gunma, with Montedio currently favored at 46% compared to a 39% chance for Thespa and an equivalent 39% probability of a draw. The modest favorite status suggests relatively balanced competitive positioning between the teams. Key drivers of the current level include recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage if applicable. The probability will shift based on team news—injuries, lineup changes, or roster updates—and will move sharply on match day as kickoff approaches and live odds become available. Resolution occurs at the final whistle of the scheduled match, which will determine the actual outcome against these pre-match expectations.
- ›Current market prices show Montedio at 46¢, Thespa at 39¢, and Draw at 39¢, indicating near-parity with slight Montedio preference
- ›Zero trading volume across all contracts in the past 24 hours suggests low liquidity and potentially outdated pricing
- ›Montedio is priced as a modest favorite rather than a strong favorite, implying competitive balance or uncertainty about team conditions
- ›The draw probability equals the runner-up win probability at 39%, typical of three-way sports markets with genuine competitive uncertainty
- ›Contract pricing across win/loss/draw must sum to approximately 100%, with current structure totaling 124¢ due to typical market fee structure
What moved the line
- May 6Montedio Yamagata↓16pp47→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma)↓4pp40→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma)↑3pp37→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Montedio Yamagata↑3pp44→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Thespa Gunma↑3pp37→40¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.