Will the official trailer for Spider-Man
Leader sits at 93% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2027?: Before Dec 1, 2027
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Beyond the Spider-Verse be r
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$36
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
571 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before
Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXMEDIARELEASESPIDERMAN-AUG26
Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2027?: Before Dec 1, 2027
KXMEDIARELEASESPIDERMAN-DEC27
Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027
KXMEDIARELEASESPIDERMAN-AUG27
Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXMEDIARELEASESPIDERMAN-APR27
Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXMEDIARELEASESPIDERMAN-DEC26
Analysis
This contract measures whether Sony will release an official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse worldwide before August 1, 2026. The 93% probability reflects that the film is scheduled for theatrical release in late 2026, making a trailer release by early August highly probable as standard marketing practice. Major studios typically begin trailer campaigns 4-6 months before theatrical release. The primary downside risk involves production delays or unexpected release date changes; the main upside driver would be early promotional announcements. The critical resolution point approaches in early August 2026, when either the trailer appears or the deadline passes. Current low trading volume ($10 24h) suggests limited recent position changes, potentially indicating consensus among traders about the likelihood of standard marketing rollout.
- ›Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse has a confirmed late-2026 theatrical release window, creating baseline expectation for trailer release 4-6 months prior
- ›August 1, 2026 deadline is approximately 3 months away, providing ample typical lead time for major studio marketing campaigns
- ›No public production delays or release date revisions have been announced as of May 2026
- ›Runner-up contract at 88% suggests meaningful but minority probability that trailer delay extends past August 1
- ›Trading volume of $10 per 24 hours indicates sparse recent activity, with most price discovery likely completed earlier
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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