The official trailer for Spider-Man
Before Dec 1, 2027 is priced at 91¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 93¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before.
Price history
91¢ current
+30¢Contract brief
If the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse has been publicly released Worldwide through official channels before Dec 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Dec 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Before Dec 1, 2027 89¢
Range
45¢-89¢
Family volume
$46
Identifier
KXMEDIARELEASESPIDERMAN-DEC27
Aug 24, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$957
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
Family volume
$46
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 93¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse has been publicly released Worldwide through official channels before Dec 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMEDIARELEASESPIDERMAN-DEC27
Event family
Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$46
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Dec 1, 2027 89¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.