Will Kansas win the Missouri vs Kansas college football game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$548
20 contracts
Closes
Sep 21, 2026
116 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will North Carolina” vs “Will LSU win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will North Carolina
Will North Carolina win the North Carolina vs TCU college football game?: North Carolina
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29UNCTCU-UNC
Will North Carolina St. win the North Carolina St. vs Virginia college football game?: North Carolina St.
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29NCSTUVA-NCST
Cluster 2
Will LSU win
Cluster 3
Will San Jose St. win the San Jose St. vs USC college football game
Will San Jose St. win the San Jose St. vs USC college football game?: San Jose St.
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29SJSUUSC-SJSU
Cluster 4
Will Texas Tech win the Houston vs Texas Tech college football game
Will Texas Tech win the Houston vs Texas Tech college football game?: Texas Tech
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP18HOUTTU-TTU
Cluster 5
Will Texas win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game
Will Texas win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game?: Texas
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12OSUTEX-TEX
Cluster 6
Will USC win the San Jose St. vs USC college football game
Will USC win the San Jose St. vs USC college football game?: USC
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29SJSUUSC-USC
Cluster 7
Will Ole Miss win the LSU vs Ole Miss college football game
Will Ole Miss win the LSU vs Ole Miss college football game?: Ole Miss
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP19LSUMISS-MISS
Cluster 8
Will Michigan St. win the Michigan St. vs Notre Dame college football game
Will Michigan St. win the Michigan St. vs Notre Dame college football game?: Michigan St.
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP19MSUND-MSU
Cluster 9
Will TCU win the North Carolina vs TCU college football game
Will TCU win the North Carolina vs TCU college football game?: TCU
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29UNCTCU-TCU
Cluster 10
Will Ohio St. win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game
Will Ohio St. win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12OSUTEX-OSU
Cluster 11
Will Houston win the Houston vs Texas Tech college football game
Will Houston win the Houston vs Texas Tech college football game?: Houston
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP18HOUTTU-HOU
Cluster 12
Will Stanford win the Hawai'i vs Stanford college football game
Will Stanford win the Hawai'i vs Stanford college football game?: Stanford
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29HAWSTAN-STAN
Cluster 13
Will Hawai'i win the Hawai'i vs Stanford college football game
Will Hawai'i win the Hawai'i vs Stanford college football game?: Hawai'i
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29HAWSTAN-HAW
Cluster 14
Will Virginia win the North Carolina St. vs Virginia college football game
Will Virginia win the North Carolina St. vs Virginia college football game?: Virginia
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29NCSTUVA-UVA
Cluster 15
Will Florida St. win the New Mexico St. vs Florida St. college football game
Cluster 16
Will New Mexico St. win the New Mexico St. vs Florida St. college football game
Cluster 17
Will Clemson win the Clemson vs LSU college football game
Will Clemson win the Clemson vs LSU college football game?: Clemson
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP05CLEMLSU-CLEM
Cluster 18
Will Louisville win the Louisville vs Ole Miss college football game
Will Louisville win the Louisville vs Ole Miss college football game?: Louisville
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP06LOUMISS-LOU
What moved the line
- May 25LSU↓63pp75→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Florida St.↓56pp84→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Florida St.↑50pp28→78¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Virginia↑41pp10→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Ole Miss↑20pp15→35¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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