Will Kansas win the Missouri vs Kansas college football game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
20 contracts
Closes
Sep 21, 2026
71 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “Will Ole Miss win the L” vs “Will San Jose St. win the San Jose St. vs USC college football game”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Ole Miss win the L
Cluster 2
Will San Jose St. win the San Jose St. vs USC college football game
Will San Jose St. win the San Jose St. vs USC college football game?: San Jose St.
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29SJSUUSC-SJSU
Cluster 3
Will Hawai'i win the Hawai'i vs Stanford college football game
Will Hawai'i win the Hawai'i vs Stanford college football game?: Hawai'i
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29HAWSTAN-HAW
Cluster 4
Will Oklahoma win the Oklahoma vs Michigan college football game
Will Oklahoma win the Oklahoma vs Michigan college football game?: Oklahoma
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12OKLAMICH-OKLA
Cluster 5
Will Clemson win the Clemson vs LSU college football game
Will Clemson win the Clemson vs LSU college football game?: Clemson
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP05CLEMLSU-CLEM
Cluster 6
Will Ohio St. win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game
Will Ohio St. win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12OSUTEX-OSU
Cluster 7
Will New Mexico St. win the New Mexico St. vs Florida St. college football game
Cluster 8
Will Stanford win the Hawai'i vs Stanford college football game
Will Stanford win the Hawai'i vs Stanford college football game?: Stanford
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29HAWSTAN-STAN
Cluster 9
Will TCU win the North Carolina vs TCU college football game
Will TCU win the North Carolina vs TCU college football game?: TCU
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29UNCTCU-TCU
Cluster 10
Will Texas win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game
Will Texas win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game?: Texas
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12OSUTEX-TEX
Cluster 11
Will LSU win the Clemson vs LSU college football game
Will LSU win the Clemson vs LSU college football game?: LSU
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP05CLEMLSU-LSU
Cluster 12
Will Kansas win the Missouri vs Kansas college football game
Will Kansas win the Missouri vs Kansas college football game?: Kansas
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP11MIZZKU-KU
Cluster 13
Will Rice win the Rice vs Notre Dame college football game
Will Rice win the Rice vs Notre Dame college football game?: Rice
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12RICEND-RICE
Cluster 14
Will USC win the San Jose St. vs USC college football game
Will USC win the San Jose St. vs USC college football game?: USC
KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG29SJSUUSC-USC
Cluster 15
Will Florida St. win the New Mexico St. vs Florida St. college football game
Cluster 16
Will Louisville win the Louisville vs Ole Miss college football game
Will Louisville win the Louisville vs Ole Miss college football game?: Louisville
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP06LOUMISS-LOU
Cluster 17
Will Wisconsin win the Wisconsin vs Notre Dame college football game
Will Wisconsin win the Wisconsin vs Notre Dame college football game?: Wisconsin
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP06WISND-WIS
Cluster 18
Will Notre Dame win the Wisconsin vs Notre Dame college football game
Will Notre Dame win the Wisconsin vs Notre Dame college football game?: Notre Dame
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP06WISND-ND
Cluster 19
Will Michigan win the Oklahoma vs Michigan college football game
Will Michigan win the Oklahoma vs Michigan college football game?: Michigan
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12OKLAMICH-MICH
Analysis
This contract reflects a 40% probability that Kansas defeats Missouri in their college football matchup, indicating the market views Missouri as a slight favorite. The probability is shaped by historical head-to-head records between the programs, current roster composition, coaching staff effectiveness, and recent performance trends in the Big 12 conference. The game itself—scheduled for the upcoming 2026 football season—will definitively resolve this contract when played. Until then, factors such as preseason rankings, player injuries, transfer portal moves, and strength-of-schedule assessments could shift the probability. Changes in Kansas quarterback performance, defensive improvements, or Missouri team changes would likely move the odds meaningfully before kickoff.
- ›Historical win-loss record between Kansas and Missouri over the past five seasons
- ›Current quarter-back and defensive line roster quality for each program relative to conference averages
- ›Preseason polling rankings and recruiting class strength entering the 2026 season
- ›Coaching staff tenure and track record in similar Big 12 matchups
- ›Late-August/September health status of key players for both teams prior to the scheduled game
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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