Will Kansas win the Missouri vs Kansas college football game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 89% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
89%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$35K
11 contracts
Closes
Sep 21, 2026
26 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “TCU wins: TCU” vs “Baylor wins: Baylor”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
TCU wins: TCU
TCU wins: TCU
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12GRAMTCU-TCU
Cluster 2
Baylor wins: Baylor
Baylor wins: Baylor
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12PVBAY-BAY
Cluster 3
Ole Miss wins: Ole Miss
Ole Miss wins: Ole Miss
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12CHARMISS-MISS
Cluster 4
Florida wins: Florida
Florida wins: Florida
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12CAMPFLA-FLA
Cluster 5
Georgia wins: Georgia
Georgia wins: Georgia
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12WKUUGA-UGA
Cluster 6
Houston wins: Houston
Houston wins: Houston
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12SOUHOU-HOU
Cluster 7
Wisconsin wins: Wisconsin
Wisconsin wins: Wisconsin
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12WIUWIS-WIS
Cluster 8
South Dakota St. wins: South Dakota St
South Dakota St. wins: South Dakota St.
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12NHCSDST-SDST
Cluster 9
USC wins: USC
USC wins: USC
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12ULLUSC-USC
Cluster 10
James Madison wins: James Madison
James Madison wins: James Madison
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12WAGJMU-JMU
Cluster 11
Will Ohio St. win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game
Will Ohio St. win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP12OSUTEX-OSU
Analysis
This contract reflects a 40% probability that Kansas defeats Missouri in their college football matchup, indicating the market views Missouri as a slight favorite. The probability is shaped by historical head-to-head records between the programs, current roster composition, coaching staff effectiveness, and recent performance trends in the Big 12 conference. The game itself—scheduled for the upcoming 2026 football season—will definitively resolve this contract when played. Until then, factors such as preseason rankings, player injuries, transfer portal moves, and strength-of-schedule assessments could shift the probability. Changes in Kansas quarterback performance, defensive improvements, or Missouri team changes would likely move the odds meaningfully before kickoff.
- ›Historical win-loss record between Kansas and Missouri over the past five seasons
- ›Current quarter-back and defensive line roster quality for each program relative to conference averages
- ›Preseason polling rankings and recruiting class strength entering the 2026 season
- ›Coaching staff tenure and track record in similar Big 12 matchups
- ›Late-August/September health status of key players for both teams prior to the scheduled game
What moved the line
- Aug 26USC↑62pp8→70¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26South Dakota St.↑44pp7→51¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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