MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion
Leader sits at 76% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2026 NL Central Champion : Milwaukee Brewers
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
2026 NL Central Champion : C
Spread
64pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Oct 11, 2026
115 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion
MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion : Milwaukee Brewers
0x8c4ba7…8847
MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion : Pittsburgh Pirates
0x1be0f7…be23
MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion : Chicago Cubs
0x199f7c…49df
MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion : St. Louis Cardinals
0xbfa186…ab3b
MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion : Cincinnati Reds
0x31563e…7c47
Analysis
This 45% probability reflects the leading market estimate for one of five NL Central teams to win the 2026 divisional title. The division remains competitive, with uncertainty driven by each team's injury status, trade deadline moves, and sustained performance through the season's second half. Key factors include which teams solidify contention by mid-June and how roster depth holds up over a full season. The division outcome will resolve in early October when the playoffs begin, but meaningful clarity should emerge by late August as teams commit to buying or selling at the deadline. Polymarket's broader World Series contracts show the Dodgers favored at 28 cents, suggesting any NL Central champion's ultimate championship odds vary significantly by team.
- ›The leading 45% position implies substantial separation from runner-up at 17%, indicating one team has established clear divisional advantage as of early May 2026
- ›Liquidity and volume across five World Series contracts ($14k+ in 24-hour volume) suggests active market participants pricing team-specific factors beyond division outcomes
- ›Late-August trade deadline typically triggers major shifts in contention probability as teams signal commitment or pivot to rebuilding, creating catalyst for re-pricing
- ›Injuries to starting pitchers or core lineup players on any frontrunner would directly pressure the leading contract downward and redistribute probability to alternatives
- ›A team's cumulative record relative to pace (55+ wins by late July) historically predicts division probability, offering near-term data points for market adjustment
What moved the line
- Jun 102026 NL Central Champion : Pittsburgh Pirates↓4pp9→5¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 122026 NL Central Champion : Chicago Cubs↑3pp9→12¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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