Montedio Yamagata vs. SC Sagamihara
Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Montedio Yamagata
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
SC Sagamihara
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$55
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Montedio Yamagata vs. SC Sagamihara
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Montedio Yamagata will defeat SC Sagamihara in an upcoming match. At 47%, traders see it as slightly favored but not heavily, with a 39% probability assigned to a draw outcome. The relative likelihood depends on recent team form, head-to-head records, home-field advantage, and player availability. Both clubs compete in Japan's professional football pyramid, and their relative positioning in the current season substantially influences win probability. The match result will resolve this contract when the final whistle sounds, eliminating all remaining uncertainty about the outcome.
- ›Montedio Yamagata's league position and recent win-loss record versus SC Sagamihara's current form and points total
- ›Home-field advantage: whether the match is played at Yamagata's or Sagamihara's stadium
- ›Head-to-head historical matchup data between these two clubs over recent seasons
- ›Key player injuries or suspensions affecting either squad's roster at match time
- ›The specific date and time of the scheduled match, which determines the resolution window
What moved the line
- May 7Montedio Yamagata↓10pp45→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Montedio Yamagata↓4pp35→31¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.