Will North Dakota St. win the College Football Mountain West Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
130 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Air Force win the College Football Mountain West Championship
Will Air Force win the College Football Mountain West Championship?: Air Force
KXNCAAFMWC-26-AFA
Cluster 2
Will New Mexico win the College Football Mountain West Championship
Will New Mexico win the College Football Mountain West Championship?: New Mexico
KXNCAAFMWC-26-UNM
Cluster 3
Will North Dakota St. win the College Football Mountain West Championship
Will North Dakota St. win the College Football Mountain West Championship?: North Dakota St.
KXNCAAFMWC-26-NDSU
Cluster 4
Will UNLV win the College Football Mountain West Championship
Will UNLV win the College Football Mountain West Championship?: UNLV
KXNCAAFMWC-26-UNLV
Cluster 5
Will Hawai'i win the College Football Mountain West Championship
Will Hawai'i win the College Football Mountain West Championship?: Hawai'i
KXNCAAFMWC-26-HAW
Analysis
This contract estimates North Dakota State has a 10% chance of winning the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship in 2026. The Bison must compete against established programs in a competitive conference, which historically has favored schools with greater resources and recruiting advantages. The current probability reflects typical preseason assessments for mid-tier FCS programs attempting to win a Power Conference championship, an outcome requiring superior performance throughout the regular season. Key factors include roster strength, coaching decisions, and performance against ranked opponents during conference play. The championship will be decided following the conclusion of the regular season and Mountain West Conference tournament, with the winner determined after conference games conclude in November and December 2026.
- ›North Dakota State competes in the FCS (Football Championship Subdivision) while the Mountain West is a Power Conference, creating a structural competitive disadvantage
- ›The team's roster depth, transfer portal acquisitions, and recruiting class quality relative to conference opponents will directly affect conference standings
- ›Head-to-head performance against ranked Mountain West teams during regular season conference play will be the primary determinant of championship viability
- ›Conference tournament seeding and potential playoff scenarios depend on win-loss record through November 2026
- ›Historical precedent shows FCS programs rarely win Power Conference championships, though occasional upsets occur with exceptional seasons
What moved the line
- Aug 22Hawai'i↓10pp14→4¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Hawai'i↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19UNLV↑3pp22→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23UNLV↑3pp25→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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