Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?
Leader sits at 71% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑$155B
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
↑$165B
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$362
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↓$135B
0x79e9b0…bb3d
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↑$155B
0x1f0f87…a10e
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↓$140B
0x5953dd…50a8
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↑$175B
0xa01504…c9ee
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↓$145B
0x7c9107…3124
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↑$165B
0xf835e8…284f
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↑$160B
0xa57da7…512a
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↑$200B
0x2ffaa9…069e
Analysis
This market measures whether Databricks will reach a $155 billion valuation by June 30, 2026—currently priced at 47%, meaning traders see it as slightly more likely than not. Databricks' valuation hinges on two primary drivers: company performance metrics and broader enterprise software funding conditions. A 47% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty, split between optimists pricing in strong continued growth and skeptics expecting valuation pressures from higher interest rates or slower AI adoption in enterprise. The June 30 deadline is imminent and fixed; the outcome depends almost entirely on whether the company pursues or completes a funding round or strategic transaction at that valuation threshold before then, rather than on operational metrics that typically take longer to influence public market expectations.
- ›Recent funding activity and announcement timelines—any new funding round would directly signal company valuation
- ›Comparable enterprise software company valuations and recent public market performance in that sector
- ›Stated growth rates, revenue multiples, and profitability trajectory relative to peer companies
- ›Interest rate environment and venture/late-stage capital availability affecting late-stage company valuations
- ›Time remaining until June 30 deadline creates discrete binary outcome; near-term announcements by company leadership would be decisive
What moved the line
- Jun 17↑$155B↑15pp51→66¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18↑$160B↑15pp49→64¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18↑$165B↑12pp57→69¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16↑$165B↑8pp43→51¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16↑$175B↓7pp17→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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