Next Senate Majority Leader
Leader sits at 25% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Chuck Schumer
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
John Thune
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
239 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Next Senate Majority Leader
Next Senate Majority Leader?: Steve Daines
0x31d22f…c333
Next Senate Majority Leader?: Chuck Schumer
0x99dcf0…79a9
Next Senate Majority Leader?: Tom Cotton
0x31352a…e65a
Next Senate Majority Leader?: John Barrasso
0xdc1ced…87a8
Next Senate Majority Leader?: Mark Kelly
0x08dd73…250c
Next Senate Majority Leader?: Amy Klobuchar
0x010f83…9f67
Next Senate Majority Leader?: Patty Murray
0x9bb2ff…9e14
Next Senate Majority Leader?: Lindsey Graham
0x0f8ba4…c40b
Next Senate Majority Leader?: Cory Booker
0x68bdc8…ef5b
Next Senate Majority Leader?: Brian Schatz
0xfa1768…a628
Next Senate Majority Leader?: John Thune
0xe77b34…74d8
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Chuck Schumer will be the Senate Majority Leader at some point in the future, currently priced at 36%. The probability reflects expectations about Democratic control of the Senate and Schumer's position within his party. This could rise if Democrats gain Senate seats in upcoming elections or if current leadership dynamics shift; it would decline if Republicans maintain or expand their majority, or if Democrats choose different leadership. The 2026 midterm elections will be the primary catalyst for resolution, as control of the Senate will likely determine which party's leader holds this position.
- ›Current Senate composition and whether Democrats can gain the three seats needed to reclaim majority control in the 2026 midterms
- ›Schumer's position and standing within the Democratic caucus, including whether alternative leaders might be chosen if Democrats gain power
- ›Historical precedent showing that Senate majority leadership typically goes to the most senior member of the majority party unless internal challenges occur
- ›Timing of potential resolution dependent on 2026 election results and subsequent Senate organization, expected late 2026 or early 2027
- ›Relative pricing across the multi-outcome contract showing other candidates at significantly lower probabilities, indicating market focus on Schumer as the leading Democratic contender
What moved the line
- May 7Tom Cotton↑27pp1→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Chuck Schumer↓14pp37→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Amy Klobuchar↓12pp13→1¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Amy Klobuchar↑10pp3→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Lindsey Graham↑10pp1→11¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.