Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense
Leader sits at 46% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
No other person
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Ron DeSantis
Spread
35pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
987 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?: Joni Ernst
KXNEXTDEF-29-JERN
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?: Dan Driscoll
KXNEXTDEF-29-DDRI
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?: No other person
KXNEXTDEF-29-NONE
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?: Ron DeSantis
KXNEXTDEF-29-RDES
Analysis
This contract reflects a 47% probability that a specific unnamed candidate will become Trump's next Secretary of Defense, based on current market pricing. The relatively low market volume ($21,000 across three contracts) and fragmented odds suggest significant uncertainty about the eventual nominee. Key drivers of this probability include Trump's stated preference for military-focused leadership, the pool of available candidates with relevant backgrounds, and potential political constraints from Senate confirmation dynamics. The primary resolution catalyst will be Trump's formal announcement of his defense secretary nomination, which typically occurs during the presidential transition period but timing remains uncertain. Until that announcement, market prices will likely fluctuate based on political reporting, candidate positioning, and any public statements from Trump regarding defense priorities.
- ›Market volume is relatively low at $21k aggregate over 24 hours, indicating thin liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- ›The leader's 47% price reflects single-outcome winner-take-all odds, not a tie scenario—other candidates collectively price near 53%
- ›No single alternative candidate exceeds 11%, suggesting the market perceives a dispersed field without obvious frontrunners
- ›Confirmation risk exists since Senate approval is required, which could affect odds if specific nominees face political obstacles
- ›The outcome depends entirely on Trump's discretionary selection decision, with no intermediate data points to calibrate expectations before announcement
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.