Will Rom Reddy qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 51% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−13pp
22h ago
24h volume
$781
2 contracts
Top contract
97¢
$564 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Pamela Evette qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary
Cluster 2
Will Ralph Norman qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Rom Reddy will finish in the top two candidates in South Carolina's Republican gubernatorial primary and advance to a runoff. The 64% probability sits between clear frontrunners Alan Wilson (85%) and Pamela Evette (88%), suggesting Reddy is viewed as a competitive but not dominant candidate. Primary performance typically depends on candidate visibility, campaign funding, endorsements, and voter alignment within the party. The primary election itself will definitively resolve this market, determining the actual top two finishers. Movement in this probability would likely reflect polling data shifts, campaign announcements, or changes in candidate viability that alter perceptions of Reddy's standing relative to other candidates in the field.
- ›Reddy's current polling position relative to other major candidates, particularly against Wilson and Evette who show higher market probabilities
- ›Campaign funding and organizational capacity to reach voters across South Carolina's primary electorate
- ›Endorsements from state party leaders, elected officials, or interest groups that could consolidate support
- ›Voter turnout patterns and demographic participation in the primary election itself
- ›Changes in field dynamics if other candidates withdraw or consolidate support before the primary vote
What moved the line
- Jun 9Pamela Evette↑30pp63→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Ralph Norman↓21pp23→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 9Ralph Norman↑9pp14→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Pamela Evette↑6pp93→99¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (51% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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