OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?
Leader sits at 30% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
19 Million
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
20 Million
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jun 11, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May
What moved the line
- Jun 1019 Million↑25pp2→27¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1020 Million↑17pp2→19¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1018 Million↓11pp23→12¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1118 Million↑8pp12→20¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1119 Million↓6pp27→21¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in oil
- Where are oil prices heading?last 38% · 0d
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?: 375Mlast 3% · 5d
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026$96.00 to $96.99last 38% · 11d
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $91.99last 97% · 11d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 14d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in oil.
In oil
Related reading
Bearish Oil Bets Surge as Iran Optimism Grows
The probability of crude oil (WTI) falling below $75 by end of June has skyrocketed 47 points to 89¢, with a 37% chance of hitting below $70. This is a direct response to the increased optimism around an Iran nuclear deal, which could bring significant Iranian oil supply back to the market.
Oil Traders Pivot to Bearish as Geopolitical Risk Premium Erodes
As the US-Iran peace deal narrative strengthens, oil markets are repricing lower. The probability of crude oil falling below $80 by end of June surged 17¢ to 81¢, while expectations for a rally above $120 collapsed. The VIX fell 4.41%, confirming a broader 'risk-on' shift that typically accompanies a reduction in geopolitical tensions.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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