Winner-take-all · 5 outcomes5 contractsKalshirefreshed 13 h agoCloses May 8, 2026 · 0d

Will the combined revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment in the April 2026 report be above -100,000ㅤ

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 87% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 64%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

87%

Above -100,000ㅤ

0¢runner-up 64¢leader 87¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

64¢

Above -50,000ㅤ

Spread

23pp

contested

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

May 8, 2026

0 days

Venue

Kalshi

5 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Above -100,000ㅤ88¢Above -50,000ㅤ70¢Above 0ㅤ35¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will the combined revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment in the April 2026 report be above

5 contracts$2K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the combined revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment in the April 2026 report be above -50,000ㅤ?: Above -50,000ㅤ

KXPAYROLLSREV-26MAY08-T-50000

64¢+3pp$756K→

Will the combined revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment in the April 2026 report be above 100,000ㅤ?: Above 100,000ㅤ

KXPAYROLLSREV-26MAY08-T100000

8¢—$506K→

Will the combined revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment in the April 2026 report be above 0ㅤ?: Above 0ㅤ

KXPAYROLLSREV-26MAY08-T0

36¢+3pp$180K→

Will the combined revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment in the April 2026 report be above 50,000ㅤ?: Above 50,000ㅤ

KXPAYROLLSREV-26MAY08-T50000

13¢+3pp$71K→

Will the combined revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment in the April 2026 report be above -100,000ㅤ?: Above -100,000ㅤ

KXPAYROLLSREV-26MAY08-T-100000

87¢+4pp$2K→

What moved the line

May 7Above -100,000ㅤ↑4pp84→88¢ · Kalshi
May 7Above -50,000ㅤ↑3pp67→70¢ · Kalshi
May 7Above 0ㅤ↑3pp32→35¢ · Kalshi
May 7Above 50,000ㅤ↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 13 h ago.

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